Glenn Greenwald
Politics • Writing • Culture
Interview with Russia/Ukraine Expert Prof. Ivan Katchanovski on Ukraine’s Growing Problems
Video Transcript
June 05, 2024
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NOTE: Due to technical difficulties, this transcribed interview was released later than 24 hours after airing. Thank you for your understanding! 


The Interview: Prof. Ivan Katchanovski


As I said at the top of the show, professor Katchanovski has been one of the most reliable sources for news and analysis since the start of the war in Ukraine. A scholar in Russian studies and in that region, he now teaches at the School of Political Studies and Conflict Studies in the Human Rights Program at the University of Ottawa. He's been a visiting scholar at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard. He has written books on post-Soviet Ukraine and has been cited as an expert on the conflicts in that region and Ukraine in media outlets throughout the world. He was also the person who essentially broke the story that you probably remember that the Ukrainian Canadian man, who was honored and cheered by the Canadian parliament led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with President Zelenskyy at his side, was a Nazi SS soldier during World War II, something that was not just embarrassing, but highlighted the optic gnawed problem of the presence of neo-Nazi factions in Ukraine. As I said, I've been informed about this war by him as much as anyone else, and we are thrilled to welcome him tonight for his debut appearance on System Update to discuss the latest defeats and problems for Ukraine and the West, the serious and growing challenges of Ukrainian recruitment and where this war is and will likely go. 

 

G. Greenwald: Professor, thank you so much for joining us. It is great to talk to you. I've been following your work for a long time and I'm glad to finally speak with you. 

 

Prof. Katchanovski: Thank you for the invitation. It's a pleasure to be on your show, which is very important and a great source of information about different issues, in particular about the war in Ukraine. 

 

G. Greenwald: Absolutely. I couldn't agree more. And I want us to start before we get into the substance because there are so many people who seem to have become overnight experts in this region, whereas it seems to me like a lot of them couldn't have placed Ukraine on the map before this conflict who pontificate on all sorts of things. Can you talk about the basis of your studies and interests in and expertise about Ukraine and this region? 

 

Prof. Katchanovski: Yes. I’m originally from Ukraine, from the western part of Ukraine. I studied Ukrainian politics since I did my dissertation in the United States at George Mason University on regional political divisions in politics in Ukraine and Moldova, and I have specialized in politics in Ukraine since that time. For a very long time, I researched the conflicts in Ukraine because I view this as a very important issue, not only to Ukraine but also to other countries. And now I think we witness such a development, in terms of war in Ukraine, which has an effect not only on Ukraine but also on many other countries, including the United States, because this war [has] now become a proxy war between Russia and the West in Ukraine, in addition to being the war between Russia and Ukraine. 

I also published four books based on my research and 20 peer-reviewed journal articles. Just today I finished another book manuscript, a manuscript on the Maidan massacre in Ukraine, which I submitted to a major Western Academic Press for publication. So, I specialized in assessing Ukrainian politics and specifically, on conflicts in Ukraine for a very long time. And I do this not relying on the media because – I think this is a very important distinction – because if people just view the Ukraine war via The New York Times coverage or NPR or any other Western major media, they will have a very biased perspective and very one-sided view of Ukraine and the war in Ukraine. And I think it's very important to rely on many sources, on Ukrainian sources. And I published some of them in the media, on my social media and Twitter. And I said this, each day I view hundreds and hundreds of videos. I read different sources in Ukrainian and Russian, which is another major language in Ukraine, so I think this is very important, to have perspective and to hear some kind of Ukrainian voices, which are very limited in terms of their representation in the Western media. And I can say that just there are few political scientists in the world who are actually able to do such research because very few of us have, you know, Ukrainian language and Russian language, which are required for such research. I think this is a very important issue to research. I think the media in this regard is not a very good source of information, to say it mildly. I also researched, Western media coverage of Ukraine before this conflict started, and I think this is a very important issue and perspective, which is often lacking, by the media, in particular, concerning Ukraine, not only Ukraine, but also other countries as well. 

 

G. Greenwald: Congratulations on the completion of that manuscript. I think it's so interesting because social media in general, Twitter in particular, is often maligned as a place where misinformation is spread. At the same time, I think one of the most important benefits of it, is that it enables people like yourself with real expertise, who would not be given access to a lot of mainstream places in Western media to find an audience, to be heard, and to challenge a lot of the orthodoxies. It's one of the ways that I discovered your work, and it kind of shows just how important it is for people like you to be willing to use those platforms to be heard. 

Let me ask you about the war itself because talking about Western media and this kind of closed information system and said the New York Times and NBC News, for the first year of the war, it was forbidden to suggest that Ukraine would have difficulty in this war against Russia. Some early successes surprised people that the Ukrainians had against the Russian military but now, sort of two and a half years into the war, even the Western press that would never have allowed this kind of claim two years ago is really admitting that essentially the Russians are winning the war, that they're advancing rapidly, the Ukrainians haven't been able to gain any control, any territory, that their front line is increasingly fragile and endangered. What do you make of where the war is and where it's likely to go? Just in terms of the battlefield. 

 

Prof. Katchanovski: I think it was very clear from the start of this war that Ukraine has no real chance of defeating Russia, and this has not changed since, any events that took place in Ukraine, including Russia's withdrawal from the Kyiv area, again, in March and April of 2022, after this peace agreement was very close to being signed by Ukraine and Russia to end this war. But this peace agreement was blocked by the Western countries and those leader such as Boris Johnson and the Biden. And I think this was the main reason for Russia to withdrawal their forces from the Kiev area. I watched these battles taking place in the Kiev area on social media via different Telegram channels. There were many videos. Originally, I also studied in Kyiv, at my university, before I came to the United States. So, in this case, I think it was very clear that this was not a military defeat of Russia. So, the Russians just basically – even though they had very significant resistance from Ukrainian forces – decided to withdraw from the Kiev area because of this peace agreement, which was very close to being signed. And I think a lot of media just use this withdrawal of Russian forces, as evidence that Ukraine was defeating Russia, that Ukraine is winning this war, even when this wasn’t the case. And the same thing happened with Avdiivka withdrawals of Russian forces and the UK was able to take back territory which was defended by Russian forces in the Kharkiv area. And now Russia basically launched a new offensive in this region and was able to capture some parts of the Ukrainian territory in the Kharkiv region. But it was very clear, and from the start of this war, I pointed to this on Twitter, in academic studies, and also in my media interviews that Ukraine has close to zero chance to defeat Russia. It was clear that Zelenskyy and his partners in the United States, the Biden administration, basically gambled against all the odds of defeating Russia even so, there was no real possibility. And I regard this as a major folly, as a major mistake. I think this was a mistake for many people but I think this is kind of a villainy. They wanted specifically to use Ukraine as a tool to defeat Russia – not to defeat, but actually to weaken Russia, as a current head of the Pentagon stated in the spring of 2022. So, they did not believe that Russia could be defeated, but they presented this as propaganda that this can be achieved in order to justify such a policy, which I think has a damaging effect on Ukraine. And based on my research, I think this is just a misinformation issue – not social media – actually politicians and governments and also mainstream media, which are major sources of misinformation because they have vested interests to misrepresent, for their political interests or their business interests or personal interests. What's going on – and I think in this case, academic research is very important, I tell you, just to present the picture, which is, based on evidence and the facts and not on the kind of political, wishful thinking or any kind of political biases. 

 

G. Greenwald: I want to get a little bit more into the motives of the West and NATO concerning this war. But before we get to that, one of the tactics that the Western media, and especially the American media, has used for a long time to sell wars is that they will make claims about what the people in that country believe or want by handpicking a certain group of people who represent not necessarily the views of the whole country, but the views that the West wants to hear. This was a famous and well-used tactic before the war in Iraq. We heard from all these Iraqi exiles who hadn't lived in Iraq for 40 years, who were presented as speaking for the Iraqi people who said Iraqis hated Saddam Hussein and they wanted the West to come in and overthrow them and be welcomed as liberators. The same thing in Libya and Syria, it's a sort of tactic that's done all the time. And one of the things that have happened since the beginning of this war is that we're constantly being told how much Ukrainians love their central government in Kiev, how much they support Zelenskyy, how much they hate Russia and the Russian invasion, because we basically only hear from people in the parts of Ukraine that are anti-Russian, in Kiev and the western provinces, and we basically never from Ukrainians who live in, certainly, in Crimea or in the eastern provinces, who have a different view. Can you talk about the difference in perspective, identity, and history between these two parts of Ukraine? 

 

Prof. Katchanovski: Yes. I published a book on this very topic based on my doctoral dissertation, at George Mason University, in the U.S., and I can say that Ukraine was a divided country, between the eastern part and the southern part of Ukraine, which was Russian. And because they used to be part of Russia for a very long time, for centuries, while western Ukraine and to a lesser extent, central, you have a different history. Western Ukraine was, for a long time, part of Poland or the Austro-Hungarian Empire. After World War I, it became a part of Romania and Czechoslovakia, and only as a result of World War II western Ukraine was incorporated into Soviet Ukraine under Joseph Stalin. So, in this regard, it was a very divided country because people in western Ukraine were very pro-Western but also pro-nationalist, and they were also very anti-Russian, in contrast with people in eastern and southern Ukraine. But, it's also very important to understand that pro-Russians who lived in eastern and central Ukraine did not necessarily support the invasion of Ukraine or a desire basically to be part of Russia. According to my research – and according to a variety of public opinion polls – the only two regions, Crimea and Donbas have a majority support for seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia. These two regions, including the ethnic Russians, who were the majority of the population in Crimea, and also a cluster of 50% of the population of Donbas support the current war by Russia in Ukraine. You can say also support the cession of the regions or joining Russia. While people in the West of Ukraine also to a large extent, in central Ukraine and Kiev city in particular, support joining the European Union and NATO. 

So, there was such a very significant divide and this divide was manifested in all elections since Ukraine became independent, in 1991, but public opinion polls also show a similar divide because, the majority of people in the West said they wanted to join the European Union, they wanted to join NATO. But the people in eastern Ukraine and southern Ukraine were against this. And now a lot of – again, the media now uses public opinion polls to say what people actually in Ukraine think about the war or peace agreements, they say that people in Ukraine are actually against a peace deal with Russia to end this war. But now, public opinion polls are not reliable because Ukraine now become even less democratic [than] it used to be before the war, basically, it's not a democracy anymore. There is no free press, there is no possibility to express political opinions freely because of the passive policies of Zelenskyy’s government. So only people actually able to express opinion in Ukraine now are people who support Zelenskyy’s government and people who have different views, actually are not able to do this. Many of them are even in prison, if they criticize, or say something, which goes against the current policies. So, in this case, I think, the voices that are present in the Western media of Ukrainians who support this war, the continuation of this war, and claim that they support Zelenskyy’s government, and his policies, actually are often not representative of all Ukrainians in Ukraine. They are very biased. And a lot of people who speak very good English, again, are interviewed very often in the media as talking on behalf of all Ukrainians, but actually they're not talking about all Ukrainians. They often talk about themselves or their narrow elite views, or often just people from western Ukraine and Central Ukraine also, to a significant extent. They are giving only limited or very insignificant media coverage, while people who have different views, including myself – I'm originally from western Ukraine and I supported, again, from the start, I supported joining European Union membership for Ukraine. But it's very difficult to get my views expressed in the media, Western media in the United States, actually, now, since the Russian invasion – even if I gave a few thousand media interviews in different media of more than 80 countries of the world – basically all mainstream media in the United States, now, basically did not ask me for any interview, since the start of the Russian invasion. And I think this is just a manifestation of the problem, because the kind of representations that people are giving in the media, including also very prominent media like the New York Times, are often biased and not representative of the views of Ukrainians. It’s very important because, if you look into a variety of public opinion polls – they are often cited by the media as evidence of the main view of Ukrainians – but public opinion polls now are not reliable because people are not able to express how they feel. I do not use public opinion polls. I look into the behavior of people because what people actually do is a much bigger kind of manifestation of their actual views compared to what they say, especially if they feel pressured to say what actually would be regarded as politically acceptable, which often people do now in Ukraine. 

 

G. Greenwald: So one of the ways that we can see some dissent, I guess you can call it, from the war policies of Ukraine, is something you've been reporting on and discussing a lot of and showing videos, a lot of, which is the growing number of Ukrainian men who are physically resisting, not just hiding, but when they're found, physically resisting the Ukrainian military recruiters who are trying to take them and force them to enlist in the military and then fight in the front line. There was a BBC report from a month ago or so that said, since the start of the war, something like 650,000 Ukrainian men have left the country, have fled the country, have found a way out of the country, presumably to avoid the war. Do you think that this trend that you're showing is a growing trend among Ukrainian men resisting being drafted? And if so, why is that growing? Video 1. Video 2. Video 3. (Forced Conscription in Ukraine.)

 

Prof. Katchanovski: Yes. These are exactly the videos that you just saw were from different regions of Ukraine. One of them was filmed in the native region of Dnipro [center of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast] near southern Ukraine or eastern Ukraine, which is Zelenskyy’s native region. The other video was from Kiev city and another video was actually from the Rivne region in western Ukraine, which is a very anti-Russian region. And in all these regions, basically in all these different locations of Ukraine, people try to escape and evade [drafting] specifically because they are caught by police or by military recruiters on the street, then they are sent to a front line with a very insignificant amount of training and without any skills, and many people get killed. So, I looked into such evidence. I analyzed this video on social media. I watch hundreds of videos each day, and I only post a very limited amount of the videos because this is enough – that's what I find, this part of my research – just representative videos I put it essentially, which received also a lot of attention. 

But I can say that the number of such videos has increased very significantly since the new mobilization law was announced by Zelenskyy, two weeks ago. They show that there is very significant resistance to forced mobilization to continue this war by people not only in eastern and southern Ukraine but also people in western Ukraine and the people in central Ukraine. And this is not only based on the videos, because if you look into statistics, in addition to the number of people which are mentioned in this BBC report, which you cited – 650,000, who left Ukraine – actually, according to a statement by a former advisor to President Zelenskyy, who actually said in one of his media interviews that, 4.5 million Ukrainian men resisted updating their information in military equipment offices because they did not want to be called for the military to be conscripted to the military service. So, 4.5 million Ukrainians resisted doing this voluntarily and now they face very significant punishment in terms of very significant fines and even the possibility of confiscation of property, even imprisonment if they continue not registering their information to community recruitment offices. 

If you're looking for other kinds of sources of information, there was an interview by one of the officials from Rivne again in western Ukraine, which is a very anti-Russian region, who said that recently just 2% of people who were “summoned” to military court, come voluntarily. So, this means 98% of people in the most anti-Russian region of Ukraine do not want to do this. And, according to some Ukrainian media reports, actually more than 1 million men of military age, actually now are wanted by the police because they also evaded military registration, they avoided being called to the military service. 

In addition to this, I checked my native region, in western Ukraine, the Volyn region, which is very close to Poland and there is a Telegram group of people who watch daily announcements about military conscription offices, their location and what they do, in which places they wait and try to capture the men for the military service. This group now has almost 40,000 members – subscribers. So, this is just information, basically, this means if you look into some possible number of people who are eligible for military service now in this region, this would mean that at least 25% of the people, men who are eligible for military service, actually try to escape and avoid the call for service in this region. Now consider a portion of people [from that region] who are not subscribed to this Telegram channel but watch and read without subscribing, and/or people who may be doing this as part of their families, now it's very likely that that's the absolute majority of people. And men in western Ukraine actually do not want to be captured and brought to the front line. I think this is much more significant evidence of the actual opinion of Ukrainians compared to what we see in the media and public opinion polls, which are not representative because they are very biased and unreliable. 

I have a new book that will be published soon, which is an open-access book in which I also examine this issue, specifically, the evidence of a real public opinion and not what is actually presented in the media, concerning Ukrainian men and Ukrainians wanting to fight Russia until the last Ukrainian. This [sentiment] is a view that is expressed by Western politicians. They often kind of use Ukraine just to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian and this is very unfortunate a situation because it leads to significant casualties in Ukraine which has a devastating effect on Ukraine. 

 

 

G. Greenwald: One of the things that amaze me is there's been a lot of reports, even in the Western media, about the political difficulties Zelenskyy had on expanding the draft mobilization law. The age of the draft had been 27, and he lowered it to 25. And even that was very difficult to pass. It had a lot of political resistance. And then you had an American senator, Lindsey Graham, who's been a very vehement supporter of the war in Ukraine and pretty much a vehement supporter of every war that has ever existed, who went to Ukraine and then came back and he said he was shocked to learn that the draft age was only 27 and then moved to 25. Now it kind of scares me that someone so involved in talking about the war and governing the war in the United States didn't know what you would know even just from reading Basic Report. But I think one of the things he was reacting to is that during Vietnam and other American wars, the draft age in the United States was 18. So, we were sending 18, 19, and 20-year-old kids over to fight in Vietnam and other wars before that, where the draft was used. Why has the draft age in Ukraine not been lowered to say, 18? Why is it at 27 and now 25? Given how difficult it is for Zelenskyy to get enough people on the front line? 

 

Prof. Katchanovski: One issue is a political difficulty, because Zelenskyy did not want damages or kind of endangering his reputation, his approval in Ukraine, because for him, basically public relations is the most important issue. So, he pays very careful attention to his image. A lot of his actions were dictated by his view of what would be beneficial to him in terms of public opinion in Ukraine and the West. So, in this case, such a change to the lower recruitment age would not be very popular in Ukraine, for this reason, Zelenskyy resisted for a long time. This changed after visits by the U.S. politicians – and also you have the Senator whom you mentioned – and they basically told Zelenskyy to lower the draft age, and he did this because Ukraine is, a client state of the U.S., and the U.S. has a lot of say and influence in terms of policy for the Ukrainian government. Oftentimes, Zelenskyy follows the U.S. policy and instructions given, as illustrated by lowering the draft age. 

Another issue is that there's a very small number of people, men of this age group, eligible for military service in Ukraine because, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, there was a very significant drop in the number of children that people had. Thus, the number of people who could be eligible in this age group is much smaller compared to older generations. And, another issue is that a lot of younger people, within this age group — younger than 25 years old — also have exemptions for military service such as university students. One of these policies dictated by Zelenskyy since the start of the war was to ban all Ukrainians from the age of 18 to 60 years old from leaving Ukraine. Now, people are often eligible for military service by their age, and the men who are 18 years old and 25 years old, are and were not able to leave Ukraine. And this is just the result of the policy of Zelenskyy. There is still a possibility that because of the current situation on the front line, which has a very negative dynamic for Ukraine because of the Russian military advantage, so Zelenskyy might be forced to even lower that conscription age to much younger age groups, maybe as low as 18-year-olds. 

There are a lot of people, specifically in the far-right, neo-Nazis, or Azov regiment, who are now giving interviews on Ukrainian television who call openly for Zelenskyy to lower the draft age to 18 years old. So now, they lobby to press Zelenskyy to lower the draft age. I think there is a possibility that he would be forced to do this because now, there is a very difficult situation in Ukraine and Zelenskyy will try everything to prevent this defeat, but, it will be very difficult to do because Russia has an advantage in land power and military weapons. 

 

G. Greenwald: I Just have a couple of more questions for you. Just because we've gone for about 30 minutes, I just want to be respectful of your time. But, one of the things that seemed very clear from the start of the war was that if you looked at what the U.S. and NATO were saying and how they were defining victory, which was essentially victory means the expulsion of every single Russian troop from every inch of Ukrainian soil, including Crimea, which the Russians have annexed since 2014, in response to the change of government there that a lot of people consider to be a coup. So, you have on the one hand, the U.S. and NATO saying we're going to fight until victory, which means expelling every Russian troop from all parts of Ukraine, including Crimea, and then, obviously, you look at it from the Russian perspective, and that's something they could never allow and would never allow and would do everything possible to prevent. And it seems like there is no way out of it because the Russians aren't going to leave Ukraine, certainly not going to leave Crimea, but it seems impossible as well for the West to win the war by the standard that they've defined it. Here we are, two and a half years into this war, and we're essentially in the same position. I think one of the reasons you see NATO officials talking about escalation, allowing the bombing of U.S. weapons inside Russia, or even deploying NATO forces there is because they're petrified of suffering defeat as they define the victory. There's a peace conference coming up. What do you see until the end of the year, as the prospect of having this war end? 

 

Prof. Katchanovski: Now, the policy of the U.S. government and other Western governments is to continue the war as long as possible because, otherwise, they would be forced to admit defeat in this conflict, which was very easy to prevent in the first place. The peace agreement – which was almost reached in Istanbul in the spring of 2022 – would have avoided such a defeat and minimized such consequences, but it was blocked by the British and U.S. administration. Specifically, the U.S. wanted to weaken Russia in this proxy war. In this case, Western officials claim the goal of Ukraine is to defeat Russia, by taking back not only Donbas but also Crimea, however, it looks like a total fantasy. And this was very clear from the start. Again, I mentioned on social media, in my media interviews, and in my academic publications that the goal of defeating Russia has close to zero chance of happening. Russia, specifically, stated that they would resort to all means, including nuclear weapons, if what they call the “integrity of Russia” would be threatened. They recognize Crimea as part of Russia even though it was annexed in 2014. 

So, this would mean basically that even if Ukraine forces were able to move into Crimea and take back Crimea, this would have led to an escalation of this war and Russia using nuclear weapons. So, this means it was not very likely that such a scenario would happen. At the time, Russia had a military advantage, so again, it’s not a possible scenario that Ukraine would be able to take back Crimea. The media and politicians presented this as a realistic scenario and a lot of people believed in this. Zelensky himself also declared this as a goal of his policy. And now he's in a very dangerous situation because he has no way to retreat from this. After all, he said that a peaceful agreement now is not possible unless Ukraine takes back Crimea and Donbas.

So now there is a much more significant possibility that Zelenskyy might not be able to stay in power until the end of this year because of the growing opposition to his ruling, which, again, became very desperate, according to media reports and his public statements. He recently went against Trump calling him a loser due to his proposal of a peace plan, and for Ukraine to admit defeat with a Russian occupation of [a part of] Ukraine. He criticized Biden for not going to the Peace Summit in Switzerland. He has just now gone against China, saying the Chinese are puppets of Russia and so on. So, now, Zelenskyy is acting erratically in this path. The new peace conference, which would be held in Switzerland, later this month, is the only public relations stand. Zelenskyy just wants to show that he still has support in the West and many other countries. And in reality, [in this new peace conference] there is no possibility of real peace because the only real peaceful agreement was only realistic in March and April 2022, yet it was blocked by the Western countries. 

So, I think a lot of people just lie willingly because they want to use Ukraine, to weaken and defeat Russia. Yet, a lot of people don’t actually know what’s going on and how this is impossible. This is what happens when they rely on the media, politicians, and government officials as a source of information. 

So, this is what I call in my Twitter comments, – with this representation of Ukraine – as a fairy tale or a Hollywood movie with a happy ending. Simply, this is garbage in and garbage out because if you rely on such garbage information, the outcome will be garbage. So, this is what the situation is. Now, I think a lot of people recognize that they've been fed all this misinformation and disinformation by the governments and media. And it’s a very tough situation for Ukraine, for Zelenskyy, and Western governments because they either have to accept a limited defeat and reach a peaceful agreement to end this war or otherwise continue this war without any realistic possibility of defeating Russia which results in more casualties to Ukraine, and more forced mobilization. I also think Russia would be able to take even more territory of Ukraine, as a result of this conflict, if it continued. A clear choice now and since the start of the war. Now the choice is for politicians actually to admit this major mistake to minimize the damage and save a lot of Ukrainian lives. 

 

G. Greenwald: Last question for you. One of the things that really, genuinely alarmed me as a journalist was watching how the Western media narrative about Ukraine that had existed for eight years or nine years before the Russian invasion, switched immediately and completely the minute the media sold this war in Ukraine. And it did this in a lot of ways but the most notable one was that pretty much every media outlet in the West had spent many years warning of the dangers of these very strong neo-Nazi militias inside Ukraine, like the Azov Battalion. And of course, this isn't to say that Ukraine is a Nazi country, or that all Ukrainians are Nazis. And so, of course not the truth and not the point. The concern was that these are the really armed factions inside Ukraine, that they weren't really integrated with the Ukrainian military, and that they were real neo-Nazis. They have, you know, pictures of Stefan Bandera and Nazi insignias everywhere. And after 2022, the Azov Battalion got turned into heroes. You would see all kinds of praise from the New York Times and others and Western officials embracing and heralding them. How do you see today the threat of these neo-Nazi militias or battalions inside Ukraine? And what do you make of these excuses that, “Oh, the Azov Battalion has moderated, that they integrated into the Ukrainian military, that they no longer have this dangerous Nazi ideology? What do you make of all of that? 

 

Prof. Katchanovski: [audio issues] For me, it was just a shock to see in the media the total change in their opinion. This of Azov, which is opening now not to let unit of Ukrainian media for UK initial got and then now became a new brigade in the Ukrainian intelligence and military. So, this was kind of unbelievable. This is Orwellian. So, you see people who are openly admitting their neo-Nazi views, publicly on social media before the Russian invasion, then using neo-Nazi insignia, like, swastikas and SS symbols, and so on, becoming suddenly, heroes. They met with top officials from the U.S. government. They met with members of Congress. They met with top university officials, for instance, at Oxford University and a chancellor of Oxford University. They met with Boris Johnson, who called them heroes. Again, quite unbelievable. 

Even, before the Russian invasion, the U.S. Congress passed an amendment, an actual U.S. defense bill, in which there was provision for not giving any assistance, military assistance, training, or money to the Azov Battalion because of their ideology. But now this was a total change of policy because it was motivated by political reasons. The Azovs did not change; their ideology did not change, but they became presented as a rebel force. So, this is similar to what happened with Syria when there was al-Qaedal in Syria, which suddenly became a kind of jihadist and so on. They became moderate rebels because [they were] supporting democracy and so on. A similar situation happened in Kosovo during a kind of war between NATO and Serbia over Kosovo, in 1998. Suddenly, overnight, Kosovo’s liberation army transformed from a terrorist organization into an organization that was supporting freedom and so on. Mujahideen in Afghanistan during the Soviet war in Afghanistan were also presented basically as freedom fighters and so on. So, this is just pure politics, motivated by the desire to use Ukraine and now open neo-Nazis supported by Western governments. This is a very dangerous situation in Ukraine. They are a real power in Ukraine because often, even if they are numerically small, they do not have representation in Ukraine's parliament or government – there are not Nazis in the government as Russia claims – but far-right, including open neo-Nazis had a very significant role in oversight of the coalition government in 2014 as a result of this Maidan massacre. I just submitted my book today about this event and what happened during that time. So, they had and continue to have a very important role in the environment of installing a coalition government, specifically by Maidanian people, supporters, and police, who blamed the government of Yanukovich, and afterward, they became very powerful because of a reliance on force. Zelenskyy was elected as president of Ukraine, he promised a peaceful resolution of the war in Donbas, which was a civil war, with Russian support and intervention, but then, two things happened. One, far-right, basically neo-Nazi, the Azov told Zelenskyy that they will not retreat the front line. They said to him that if he wanted his peaceful agreement, he basically would be killed in Kiev. They didn’t face any punishment and they were openly kind of supported by Zelenskyy. So, Zelenskyy openly started to support them, placate them, give them support money, say they are moderates, give them medals, titles, and so on. So, this is now a dangerous situation because the far-right in Ukraine is a real opposition, a real power, and they can overthrow Zelenskyy because they rely on violence. They have military support and forces. They have an integrated community with security forces and the police. They have a lot of power. They can overthrow Zelenskyy using violence if he tries to reach this peace deal. So, in this case, I think this is an important danger for Ukraine from the far-right. In this case, Western governments and media are using this far right for their own benefit, but they can suffer blowback. Similar to what happened with Al-Qaeda [in Afghanistan], which was initially supported as part of the Taliban, supported Mujahideen, with the war with the Soviet Union, but then they launched 9/11 in the United States. Just like this, the far-right and neo-Nazis in Ukraine are dangerous because they have their military units so they can use violence not only in Ukraine but also in other countries, including the Western countries. They will be very bitter against the U.S. and many other Western governments for not defeating Russia and meeting their main goal. This is a dangerous situation for Ukraine, but also for the West. Dictated by political reasons to whitewash far-right including openly neo-Nazis, the media, and politicians tell the people otherwise.  

 

G. Greenwald: Well, Professor Katchanovski, I think people can now understand why I consider you to be such an important source of information and knowledge and scholarship about this war. We're going to put your Twitter account in the notes to the show, so hopefully, people can follow you there. I appreciate your taking the time not just to talk to us, but to shed so much light on this area in which you're an actual expert and we'd love to have you back on soon. Thanks very much. 

 

Prof. Katchanovski: Thank you. 

 

G. Greenwald: All right. Goodnight. 


So that concludes our show for this evening.

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Hey @ggreenwald ,

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South Korean Economist Ha-Joon Chang on the Economic World Order, Trump's Tariffs, China & More
System Update #410

The following is an abridged transcript from System Update’s most recent episode. You can watch the full episode on Rumble or listen to it in podcast form on Apple, Spotify, or any other major podcast provider.

System Update is an independent show free to all viewers and listeners, but that wouldn’t be possible without our loyal supporters. To keep the show free for everyone, please consider joining our Locals, where we host our members-only aftershow, publish exclusive articles, release these transcripts, and so much more!

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We focus a lot on this show on international relations and foreign policy from the perspective of what often shapes them – things like wars and militarism, conflicts and perception of external threats – but at least as important is the world economic order: which countries are rich, which ones are poor, which ones are developing and aren't and how that system is maintained as well as the truth about rising economic powers like China and its potential to undermine American dominance and the dollar as the reserve currency. 

Ha-Joon Chang is a leading economist known for his sharp critiques of international economic institutions and their defense of neoliberalism. No matter how often it fails, as well as for his advocacy for economic pluralism, he has become quite a growing sensation online with his lectures. 

He's a professor at the SOAS University of London and a former Cambridge lecturer. He's probably best known for his 2002 book, “Kicking Away the Ladder,” which examines how wealthy nations traditionally have blocked economic progress in developing countries. His recent book, “Edible Economics,” from 2022, uses food to explain economic ideas. 

In addition to these topics, we sat down with him last night and he helped us understand the likely implication of Donald Trump's proposed tariffs and protectionism as a basis for his economic policy, as well as the reason basic economic literacy is so important in democracy and how often it is deliberately made inaccessible through things like jargon and excessive statistics and a reliance on all sorts of terms that are designed to keep people away. He has made it a life work to elevate economic literacy. I found the conversation with him very interesting. I think you will as well. 

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The Interview: Ha-Joon Chang

G. Greenwald: Professor Chang, thank you so much for taking the time to come on and talk. One of the reasons we were so interested in having you is we have a lot of conversations now about geopolitics and international relations. So often it focuses on things people can easily understand, things as wars and various types of conflicts. A huge part of geopolitics in the international order is the scheme of wealth – that various countries have or don't have – and has always been. 

A lot of your work has become quite popular. I think “Kicking Away the Ladder,” the 2002 book, is among your best known and, for me, that provides one of the best explanations to understand why some countries are rich and why some are poor and kind of how there's a system to ensure that stays the same. Can you talk about that for people who haven't read that book or are familiar with your work? 

Ha-Joon Chang: Yes, the book was published in 2002, so it's quite a bit old now. But there I was pointing out that this was the high noon of neoliberalism when rich countries were lecturing developing countries “Oh, don't use that stupid things like protectionism, don't use that state-owned enterprises that don't have a government meddle with business.” But then I tried to show that these are actually exactly the policies that the rich countries themselves use in order to get where they are today. Telling the developing countries not to use these policies is like someone using a ladder to climb to the top and kicking the ladder away so that other people cannot follow. 

The most famous and most robust argument for using protectionism is known as the infant industry argument. That argument says the government of a developing nation needs to protect and nurture its young industries until they grow up and compete in the global market. Exactly in the same way that we protect and nurture our children until they grow up and can compete in the adult labor market. Of course, in poor countries, a lot of children work from the age of five or six, but you know, this means that they cannot get educated, they cannot acquire high skills and so on. So, if you can do it, it pays to send these kids to school rather than sending them to work. 

Very interestingly, this logic of infant industry protection was invented by an American and not just any American. He was called Alexander Hamilton, the very first Treasury Secretary of the United States of America. He invented the term “infant industry protection.” Initially, a lot of Americans were not convinced by this, especially people like Thomas Jefferson who said this guy is insane. We can export our cotton and tobacco, of course – I never mentioned the slaves – and import manufactured goods that are cheaper and better – even considering the considerable transportation costs – than what these Yankees can produce. So why should we subsidize these inefficient Yankee manufacturers? 

So, it was initially rejected, but over time the Americans figured out that actually this was what they needed and yeah, from about the 1830s until the Second World War, most of the time over that 120-year period, the United States was the most protectionist country in the world. So, I was revealing this history. It wasn't just the U.S. I mean, Hamilton got his ideas from British practices, Germans later developed Hamilton's theory and used protectionism quite heavily in the late 19th century. The Swedes and later the French and the Japanese and more recently Koreans and Taiwanese and so on. 

So, I was basically pointing out this hypocrisy in which these countries are actually telling developing countries not to use the exact same policies that they used in order to climb to the top. It wasn't just protectionism. It wasn't just tariffs, there were a lot of other policies like the use of state-owned enterprises, strict regulations on foreign investments and other things. So yeah, I mean, that caused a bit of a wave in the international policy debate because developing countries could tell the rich countries, “Look, why are you telling us not to use these policies when these are exactly the policies that you guys used in order to get where you are today?” 

G. Greenwald: You know, it's interesting when you kind of take those principles that you just described, these historical and economic principles, and apply them to specifics, I think sometimes people can see them better in a kind of more modern sense. And one of the things I find so interesting is that you have now a lot of billionaires who became that wealthy because they developed companies in the wake of the internet that became public companies, became very large and successful, who are now essentially insisting that the only way for innovation to happen is to have massive cuts in government spending, even though the internet itself was the byproduct of massive government investment, some of whom will acknowledge that. So, is that the kind of dynamic that you're describing where there's kind of this propaganda that government spending impedes economic growth, whereas so often it's what spurs it? 

Ha-Joon Chang: Yeah, I mean, it's in a way the most obvious in the United States. You know, it wasn't just the internet, but the computer itself, microchips. I mean, these are all financed by the U.S. government, especially the U.S. military: the internet, the GPS system, what makes our modern information economy possible, these were all invented with government money. And there's a reason why Silicon Valley is where it is because this is where a lot of U.S. defense research, specially built around the jet propulsion laboratory, was conducted. And yeah, this is like, once again, people rewriting history in the most convenient way. I mean, they lived on government support in the beginning, and then now that they are bigger and don't need the government as much, although they still need government, the U.S. government is still pouring huge amounts of money into military research, which spills into the civilian industries. I mean, it gives a huge protection in the form of the patent system and copyright system, without which these companies wouldn't have the monopoly they have. So, actually, they still need the government, but of course, they only want protection and not the obligations. So, now they say the government is bad. 

G. Greenwald: Yeah, in fact, most of those companies, not only exploited the technology developed by the government, but continue to rely on massive government contracts, particularly with the military, but with the intelligence, you know, you have Palantir and all these adjacent companies that are on this kind of austerity kick. Everyone needs to lose their benefits, every government agency needs to be cut, except for our massive contracts with the CIA and the Pentagon that are worth many, many billions of dollars. 

The enforcement scheme – you were describing earlier, how rich countries sort of dictate this economic dogma to poor countries, that they know themselves the rich countries aren't what produces growth. The mechanisms by which they do that have been these kinds of international institutions like the World Bank and the IMF. Oftentimes the message is, well, we've fostered this dependency, you're relying on a bunch of our loans and bailouts and, as a condition, we kind of demand that you just cut all services for your citizens and investments in your society. We want to see massive austerity and no more government spending. 

Is that done, do you think, with the intention to maintain these countries in a sort of dependence state, or is it just a misguided but well-intentioned way of trying to help these countries grow? 

Ha-Joon Chang: Yeah, it's a mixture of things, you know, because there is a lot of misguided goodwill. There are people who truly believe that the United States and other rich countries are developed on the basis of free trade and free market; there are economists who believe that government is bad and so on. So yeah, some of it is misguided goodwill. But you have to ask the question, if it's so misguided and has produced terrible results – because the World Bank and IMF programs have basically wiped out economic growth, increased inequalities, and created all sorts of problems in almost all the developing countries where they were involved – then, at that point, you will have to ask: okay, I mean, misguided goodwill or not, if these programs are not working, why do they keep repeating the same thing again and again and again? I mean, maybe you could say that these people are mad. As Einstein said, the definition of madness is repeating the same thing again and again and expecting different results. But it's not madness that they are doing this. They are allowed to repeat these policies that are not working only because they are basically backed by the rich countries, which benefit from this kind of thing. 

G. Greenwald: One of the more interesting disputes that arose in the last decade, it was about a decade ago now, maybe a little more. I don't focus primarily on economic policy or macroeconomics or anything, but I follow the story quite closely when the Greek economy was sort of on the verge of collapse. The Greeks elected a fairly populist, aggressive government that tried to stand up to primarily France and Germany insisting that the Greeks impose a sort of rigid austerity like we were just talking about. The Greeks tried to be very confrontational and resisted and didn't really work out well for Greece in the end. Are there ways that underdeveloped countries that are put into these positions have to defy these institutions or are they pretty much captive to what they're told to do? 

Ha-Joon Chang: Well, yeah, Greece was really crushed by the European Commission, basically France and Germany. I mean, people say that in that episode the IMF was telling the Germans and the French that they were going too far but what happened there was this mistaken belief that the way to revive the economy is to cut government debt, which means cutting spending. The trouble is that when you cut spending, the economy shrinks and the tax revenue falls and, as a result, even while the spending was cut brutally, public debt, as a proportion of GDP, was still rising because GDP itself was shrinking very rapidly. And there was a huge unemployment –especially youth unemployment reached over 40%. So, it was a total disaster.

But there are instances where the countries defied these international institutions [audio failed] …the Asian financial crisis and yeah, instead of signing these austerity agreements with the IMF, Malaysia suspended capital outflow for like a year. And yeah, there was a huge uproar. You know, they said, “Oh, when this ban is lifted, you know, 70, 80 billion dollars will flow out of the country.” But what happened was that because of this ban, because the money couldn't flow out, they stayed and then started doing something, so the economy got revived. When the government lifted the ban one year later, only six or seven billion dollars flowed out, which is a kind of normal amount. 

So, you know, there are these instances. And also, you know, look at the successful economies in East Asia: Japan first and then Korea, Taiwan, now China. I mean, these countries never really followed the advice of the World Bank and the IMF. (laughs) So, the proof is that they're steering you right into your face but apparently, you know, the people refuse to understand it. Was it the Canadian American economist John Kenneth Galbraith who said that if someone's salary depends on not understanding something, you can never make that person understand anything? It might have been often unclear but, basically, these institutions, these governments, they are refusing to accept this reality because it means that they have done wrong, it means that they have to do something that benefits them less. 

G. Greenwald: That is interesting, this emergence of this kind of new economic power based in Asia, obviously led by China. As you might know, our program is based in Brazil. Brazil had for a long time been kind of under the thumb of the United States. It's in what the United States considers its backyard, which is all of South America. But then Brazil became a founding member of the BRICS alliance and the Brazilian president Lula da Silva has said several times now that he wakes up every day dreaming of de-dollarization. Is the emergence of things like BRICS or the attempt to move away from the dollar as the dominant reserve currency potential paths to undermining this system that you're describing? 

Ha-Joon Chang: Yes. Of course, if you zoom out, the history of Capitalism has been a history of domination and resistance and military invasion and colonization, gunboat diplomacy that led to unequal treaties. And so, it's been a constant struggle between different countries and societies that are located in different parts of the global economic hierarchy. 

So, yeah, I mean, in the '60s and '70s, with decolonization, a lot of developing countries that wanted to be kind of independent of the U.S. and European domination, they wanted to be allowed to change their positions in the global economic hierarchy and, yeah, they called for the new international economic order, they organized a non-aligned movement. Unfortunately, all of this was crushed in the '80s and '90s with the third world debt crisis starting with the Mexican [  ] of 1982 and, yeah, especially countries in Latin America and Africa basically kind of being forced to implement these World Bank-IMF policies, which basically created decades of stagnation and social unrest. 

Now, with the recovery from that phase and with the rise of China, with the kind of revival of some of the developing economies in the 21st century, these countries have started demanding a different arrangement. So, there's BRICS, also G20, which was created when rich countries were in big trouble, after the 2008 financial crisis. There has been the creation of new developing country-focused financial institutions, very often led by China, the Asian Infrastructure Bank and the New Development Bank. Yeah, so things are quite different. 

In the '80s and '90s, if you didn't agree with the World Bank, you didn't get money because there was only one bank in town, and it was called the World Bank. Now, there are different banks. Now, there are different countries with slightly different views about development, like, say, South Korea giving foreign aid and China is rising, Brazil is becoming quite assertive and South Africa, in its own way, is trying. So yeah, I mean I think this is a time of great global geopolitical shift. 

But when it comes to dollar dominance, I'm afraid that it's going to be a while before it can be changed because once you become the dominant currency, it gives you so much kind of extra power even without you trying. So, it's very difficult to change that. It has been changed only once with the rise of the U.S., you know, Britain had to see the position of the home of the dominant currency. But even that took decades. And this time around, even with the creation of the euro and the rise of China and so on, it will still take some time before the currency domination can be changed. But in other respects, the World Bank is now almost irrelevant, the IMF is kind of less domineering, [  ] credits changed its practices a little bit, not massively. So yes, I think the world is in a very interesting place. Unfortunately, it means that it can be a very dangerous place because now the Americans and Europeans are desperate to stop China's rise and they are doing a lot of things that could create quite a lot of collateral damage for weaker countries in the process.

G. Greenwald: Your work has become quite popular in various sectors online, as I'm sure you know and one of the viral clips that I saw circulating several times was one where you were talking about how modern-day economic thinking and language are sort of comparable to Catholic theology in the Middle Ages. 

And the thing that I thought of when I heard that was the very first U.S. presidential election that I really paid close attention to – it was in my young adulthood – was the 1992 presidential election where you had the Democrat Bill Clinton and the Republican George H. W. Bush who were in full agreement on the virtues and the sanctity of free trade. And then this was the time of NAFTA and the like. And then you had this third-party candidate who was kind of treated as a crazy person, Ross Perot, a Texas billionaire, who was saying NAFTA will gut out industrial jobs and factories and good paying middle-class lives for Americans. And then, you know, 20 years later, everyone agrees that the major problem is that we have massive deindustrialization, all these towns are shuttered, the middle class has kind of withered. Very prescient. 

At the time I didn't know who was right, but it seems very clear that the NAFTA opponents were. And yet any attempt still, even after all of that, to question the tenets of free trade and the necessity of having full-scale free trade drives people insane like it's some kind of an outrage.

Is that the sort of thing you were talking about with this “Middle Age theology”? And can you kind of expand on what more you mean by that? 

Ha-Joon Chang: Yeah, well, yeah, Ross Perot's giant sucking sound from the South. Yeah, no, no, absolutely. 

Well, it's not just in relation to free trade that economics has become the modern equivalent of Catholic theology in Medieval Europe. I mean, it is basically now a doctrine that justifies the existing social economic order. So, it's basically telling us the world is what it is because it has to be. However, unjust, irrational, or wasteful, you think that it might be the “science of economics” is saying – or in the old days, “the words of God,” especially as interpreted by the Vatican – it is something that you have to accept. 

So that now, you know, I mean, of course, that, you know, in the capitalist economy, economic considerations have always been dominant, but especially in the neoliberal age, when, you know, economic considerations are the ultimate and very often the only logic that you have to accept. I mean, economics has become basically the language of power. 

Of course, when I say economics, I must qualify that. There are different types of economics, you know, not all economists believe in the free market; not all economists think nothing else matters other than the market. But, you know, economics as it is practiced today is like that. Therefore, it has become a very important kind of obstacle to changing the world because it says that this is the best of all possible worlds and that anyone who tries to challenge it is either misguided or has a hidden agenda to enrich himself, empower himself, but really don't care about the rest of the world. 

So, yeah, I'm afraid that it's become like that and to extend the analogy a bit further, you know, economics as it is practiced has become basically impenetrable to ordinary citizens because it uses a huge amount of jargon, lots of mathematics, you know, lots of statistics. And yeah, I mean, ordinary people find it difficult to understand. So, it's become the Latin of the Middle Ages. I mean, it's the language of the ruling class. And if you don't know Latin, you are not even allowed to debate anything and the Vatican made sure that no one other than the priesthood and sons of some very rich people understand the Bible, by preventing the translation of the Bible into vernacular languages. So, later during the Reformation, it became a big deal that the Bible was translated into English, German, French, and so on. Because now it meant that a lot of people could read it. So, yes, I'm afraid that this analogy is not as frivolous as it might seem. 

G. Greenwald: Well, it's interesting, though, because although that's clearly accurate in terms of how economic theory and economic thinking has gone, especially in the West and in these institutions we've been describing, probably even globally, you now have a new American president who ran on a campaign very hostile toward free trade and very favorable to protectionism and tariffs and explained it in a way that enough people could understand it. They voted for him, believing that tariffs would protect American industry, would enable its reemergence, the return of jobs and you have these establishment economic outlets like The Wall Street Journal and those types – the neoliberals and sort of, you know, classic conservative economic dogmatists – who are horrified and outraged by what is coming out of the Trump White House with regard to protectionism and free trade and tariffs. What do you make of his administration's approach to these questions? 

Ha-Joon Chang: Yeah, well, first of all, most of his tariffs are used to get concessions on other things than straightforward economic things, so, the use of the threat of tariffs to Canada and Mexico to kind of intensify their border controls. But insofar as it is used for economic purposes, I think it's very poorly conceived and will backfire most immediately, it is going to increase inflation. Especially if you impose a tariff on Chinese imports, which account for a big proportion of U.S. consumer products, then it will have an immediate inflationary effect. 

I mean, this is why initially he talked about a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, but now it's only 10% because even he and his people know that could spark inflation. But, you know, in the long run, this importation of cheap, good-quality consumer products from China has been one of the most important factors in the modern neoliberal American political economy, because wages have been suppressed for the last 50 years. The U.S. median wage fell from the mid-70s till the mid-90s, and then it started rising again but it recovered to the ‘70s level only a few years ago. And in that story, of course, another important role was played by the ballooning of credit cards and other consumer debts, but the availability of these cheap Chinese goods was very important. 

Now, if you impose a tariff on Chinese goods, you'll have to pay your workers more. How are you going to cope with that? So, it actually could undermine the whole neoliberal economic system. 

Now, he says that this will rebuild the U.S. industry, but I'm afraid it's not going to happen like that, because protection, as in the infant {industry} protection story, protection only creates this space in which improvement can happen and in order for that to happen, companies need to invest, they need to do research and development to innovate, they need to recreate the skill base of the American workforce and so on. And there's no plan to do it through deliberate industrial policies. 

So, he's basically leaving it to American corporations to do it, but then these corporations are actually not interested in rebuilding the economy because the U.S. now has – yeah, this really started in the '80s, but that really came into full being in the 21st century – the U.S. now has a parasitic financial system, which is not interested in long-term investment. 

In the last 25 years, the American stock market sucked out money from corporations rather than putting money in, which is supposed to be their job. Now these companies, in order to satisfy these short-term-oriented shareholders, have to do huge stock buybacks, sometimes borrowing money to do stock buybacks, because they want to do stock buybacks that are bigger than their profits, giving away huge dividends. So, in the last 25 years, 90% to 95% of U.S. corporate profit has been given back to these shareholders. 

So, these companies are like leaky buckets. You create more water by temporarily protecting your economy from foreign competition. These companies get more resources because of that because now they don't have competition, they can charge higher prices and so on. But this money is going to leak out of these corporations. I mean, look at the way that Boeing has been destroyed, all because of this parasitic financial system. 

So, I'm afraid that it's not going to work. It's not to go back to the infant industry analogy, although in the current U.S. case, it's not an infant, it's the revival of an old person. I mean, it's not enough to go to school, the kid has to study. You have to provide incentives and punishment to the kid so that he puts adequate hours and concentration to study. I mean, what Trump is doing now is sending the kid to school, but letting the kid decide what he wants to do. So, when he goes to school, he will skip classes and not concentrate. So yeah, I mean, good luck with the revival of the U.S. industry. I'm afraid I don't see it happening. 

G. Greenwald: I just have a couple more questions. I want to talk about what you just said and what you talked about before in this comparison to Catholic dogma and theology and the like, which is that if you had a set of pieties or orthodoxies in a particular field that was producing positive outcomes, you could almost understand why there weren't a lot of people questioning it or challenging it because it's working. 

Here in economics, especially international finance, you have not just the destruction of jobs and the middle class throughout the West in the United States, but also the 2008 financial crisis, what you were just alluding to, in a lot of ways, that wrecked the economic security and future of a couple of generations of people and countries all over the world. And you would think it would prompt a reexamination of a lot of these unchallenged premises and yet one of the things you describe is this kind of oligopolistic system of economics to prevent these principles from being challenged, I suppose, because they actually have worked well for a certain group of people who have an interest in perpetuating them. But how does that work, this oligopolistic system to preserve these pieties and make sure there's no challenge to them? 

Ha-Joon Chang: Yeah, so the most shocking is how poorly the neoliberal system has performed. I mean, of course, it benefited hugely a tiny group of people at the top. But, you know, compared to the days of the so-called “mixed economy,” the period between the 1950s and '70s, when there was a lot more government regulation, you know, the U.S. was 92% in those days – and there was a lot of strong state involvement in economic development, industrialization, all over the world, not just in developing countries, in the U.S., in Europe. Compared to those days of the so-called mixed economy, neoliberalism has not only produced higher inequality and more social problems, which even many of the advocates of neoliberalism admitted might happen, but it has produced much less growth. In the earlier period, the world economy was growing at about 2.8%. In the last 40 years of neoliberalism, it has been growing at half the rate – 1.4%, 1.5%, both in per capita terms per year. So, if it cannot even produce growth, why do we have this? That's the biggest mystery. 

Of course, those who benefit from it have all the interest in the world to defend it. So, you know, basically, the kind of politicians who support their agenda is more blatant in the U.S. because there's a lot of money flowing around in the U.S. politics legally. In other countries, it's a bit less, but those who have money have a huge influence on government policy, they control the media and they make sure that people are kind of indoctrinated into believing that this is the best of all possible worlds by making sure that the right kind of economists are given the Nobel Prize, the right kind of economists are given faculty positions in top universities, the right kind of economists that write in the financial press and pontificate on what is a good economic policy. And, yeah, above all, they have basically found a trick in diverting people's attention away from economics by creating all kinds of single-issue debates on gun control and abortion and the culture war and wokeism. 

So, yes, I'm afraid that this is why I have been on a personal mission in the last couple of decades to propagate mass economic literacy because in the kind of society we are living in, without everyone knowing at least some economics, democracy is meaningless. It becomes like voting in a talent show. Oh, I like the look of that guy. I mean, he has a beautiful voice or whatever. I mean, that is not about the substance, because those who have power and money do not want people to think about the substance. 

G. Greenwald: Well, with my last question, I'd love to have you back on, because it's been super enlightening, which I expected it to be, but I want to ask you about China. I remember in the 1980s in the United States, or into the 1990s, the overwhelming economic discourse was about fearmongering about Japan and its rising economic power: they're buying all of our buildings, they're taking over our industries, there's no stopping them. Apparently, there was some stopping them, because none of these scenarios that were depicted really happened. 

But now we're hearing the same thing, the same kind of rhetoric, about China – that they're rapidly growing, so fast that they're going to have parity with the United States in terms of purchasing power, they're going to be this unstoppable economic force. There's a lot of talk about them having to be our implacable enemy and at least a Cold War-type competitor or adversary. What do you think from a Western perspective and an American perspective is the right way to understand what one might call the threats or challenges posed by a rising China? 

Ha-Joon Chang: I must declare at the beginning that I'm not a fan of any country. I'm a citizen of South Korea. Korea has been bullied by everyone around us for the last few thousand years, Chinese, Japanese, the Mongols, the Manchus, the Huns, and later Russians and Americans. So, whatever I say about Japan, China, and so on, it's not because I'm particularly fond of or hate that particular country. I hate all the countries equally if you want me to put it that way. (laughter)

The rise of Japan was halted partly because Japan got bullied into opening the financial market and accepting a huge revaluation of the currency in the 1985 Plaza Accord. Once that happened, there was a huge financial bubble, it burst, the Japanese didn't manage the aftermath very well and then the economy went into a permanent kind of depression, and it was seen off in that way. And that happened, well, maybe mainly, if not even partly, because Japan was dependent on the U.S., on the military. When they lost the Pacific War, they were forced to sign this constitution which prevented it from having a sizable army and then the U.S. military is stationed in Japan. 

So, in that sense, even though it was rising economically, [Japan’s] political position was subordinate to that of the U.S. China doesn't have that problem. And actually, from China's point of view, the U.S. is the aggressor because basically China is surrounded by U.S. navy and army bases, almost all across this South border, except the one they did with Russia. You have the U.S. army stationed in South Korea, as well as the air forces; the South China Sea is kind of covered with U.S. Navy presence and you name it. 

So, China is not going to play that game that Japan had to play. So, it's not going to accept financial liberalization, which is the easiest way to undermine the rising economy because China does not have the kind of financial power, and I'm not just talking about money, but the financial institutions and the skills that people who work in the financial industry has and so on, that you can mobilize to fight the American financial power. Whereas you can and it is fighting the American power in terms of production and international trade and so on. 

My prediction is that China will not play that game, which means a big problem for the U.S. because first of all, it's not as if this is, as some people argue, the second Cold War. In the real Cold War, there was no real economic relationship between the Soviet bloc and the U.S. bloc. This time, China and the U.S., these economies are deeply intertwined. China is the biggest trading partner with the U.S. after the EU and the NAFTA countries. I mean, it owns 13% of the U.S. Treasury bills. As I mentioned earlier, the role as a source of affordable, good-quality consumer goods is very, very critical to the American political economy. 

So, the U.S. cannot push it around in the way that it could with Japan. More importantly, what the U.S. has been doing in the last several years – and this is not just Trump, I mean, even from the days of Obama, but more clearly, Biden – it has been actually pushing China into catching up faster. With all these restrictions on the high-grade microchips and key technologies, China – they say this is the model of invention – China has come up with these ways of doing the same things with less resources and lower technologies. 

So, when Biden made the Dutch companies and German companies export lithographic machines that make the circuit board for semiconductors, Americans thought, well, now this will make it impossible for the Chinese to have the latest microchips but, lo and behold, within a couple of years, it found a way to make the latest seven-nanometer chips without using the latest machines from the Dutch and the Germans. I mean, lately, this Chinese AI company DeepSeek has kind of created an economic earthquake by creating an AI with a fraction of the cost that American companies are using. 

So, I mean, if the U.S. really wanted to push back China, it should have started 20 years ago. Now it's too close. Putting more pressure on China will – not necessarily, but most likely – bring forward a day when it catches up with the United States and the rest of the world. This is why the U.S. and the EU are panicking and breaking all the rules of the WTO and other international institutions that they were so insistent on upholding because now they are desperate to [ ] China. But without a coherent industrial strategy and without reforming the leaky parasitic financial system, I'm afraid that they are not going to be able to do that. 

G. Greenwald: All right, Professor Chang, it's always good to have one's economic literacy raised and in the spirit of doing that we will show everybody who's watching where they can follow your work. We really appreciate you're taking the time to talk to us. We'd love to have you back on as well. Thank you so much.

Ha-Joon Chang: Thank you.

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Rumble & Truth Social Sue Brazil’s Chief Censor Moraes in US Court; DC Establishment Melts Down Over Trump's Ukraine Policy
System Update #409

The following is an abridged transcript from System Update’s most recent episode. You can watch the full episode on Rumble or listen to it in podcast form on Apple, Spotify, or any other major podcast provider.

System Update is an independent show free to all viewers and listeners, but that wouldn’t be possible without our loyal supporters. To keep the show free for everyone, please consider joining our Locals, where we host our members-only aftershow, publish exclusive articles, release these transcripts, and so much more!

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There were two main segments on this episode:

First, we discussed the lawsuit filed by Donald Trump’s media company – which owns his social media site Truth Social – jointly with this platform, Rumble, against Brazil’s notorious chief censor, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. 

We were the ones who broke this story on the front page of Brazil’s largest newspaper this morning – Folha de São Paulo – and we’ll explain the story’s significance and its implications for a free internet. 

Tthen: President Trump significantly escalated his rhetoric against the West’s long-time darling – Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy – after Zelenskyy made critical comments about Trump, which in turn followed Trump's endorsement of the need for elections in Ukraine. After all, if you're fighting a war in defense of democracy, that country you're defending probably should have elections. Instead, Trump slammed Zelenskyy as a “modestly successful comedian” who “talked the U.S. into spending $350 billion for a war that couldn’t be won,”. He also accused Zelenskyy of presiding over missing money in Kiev and suffering from deep disapproval among his own people, labeling him, “a dictator without elections.” All of that was in the context of Trump's arguing that the war must end – not only for the sake of the United States but also for the Ukrainian people. 

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We have reported many times on the increasingly repressive censorship regime imposed by not just the Brazilian government, but more so by a single judge on the Brazilian court. It’s something we've covered for lots of different reasons, including the fact that your free speech rights, if you're in the United States, are absolutely affected and threatened whenever censorship regimes are imposed and accepted in parts of the democratic world. They become the new bar that other countries can then hurdle over. We've seen that many times. There have been extreme examples of this in Brazil, including the banning of X, forcing them to comply with and obey every censorship order issued by a single judge. And it's just so extreme. 

Now, as you probably know, Rumble had operated in Brazil for a long time and began receiving this tsunami of censorship orders demanding that they close the accounts or block accounts of a whole long list of people, one after the next, always in secret court orders with no due process, no trial, no notice to the other person being censored. Rumble began complying but then got to the point where they said, “We created our site to be a site that defends free speech. We're not going to sit here and unjustly censor” and so Rumble decided that they would not be available in Brazil rather than comply with unjust censorship orders. 

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Germany's Repressive Speech Crackdown Intensifies | U.S. & Russia Meet in Saudi Arabia and Open Cooperation | Plus: An Amazing Hate Crime in Florida is Buried
System Update #408

The following is an abridged transcript from System Update’s most recent episode. You can watch the full episode on Rumble or listen to it in podcast form on Apple, Spotify, or any other major podcast provider.

System Update is an independent show free to all viewers and listeners, but that wouldn’t be possible without our loyal supporters. To keep the show free for everyone, please consider joining our Locals, where we host our members-only aftershow, publish exclusive articles, release these transcripts, and so much more!

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First: The German-based journalist, James Jackson, has been covering free speech attacks in Germany extensively and he will be here with us tonight to explain all of them. 

Then: Several top national security officials of the Trump administration – including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump envoy, Steve Witkoff – met today in Saudi Arabia with senior Russian officials including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. It was the first real dialogue between high-level officials of both countries – by the way, the world’s two largest nuclear superpowers – that took place in many years and there is every reason to celebrate even, indeed, – to breathe a sigh of relief – over the fact these two countries are now agreeing to maintain open dialog and work together, cooperatively, not only to end the devastating war in Ukraine but on numerous issues of common interest beyond Ukraine as well. 

Plus: there was a bizarre and extraordinary hate crime that took place in Miami over the weekend that you likely heard very little about. A Jewish American man who identifies as an ardent Zionist shot and tried to kill two people solely because he thought they were Palestinian. The two men he shot were actually Israeli. 

For their part, the two victims also mistook the ethnic background of their shooter: they announced on social media that he was Arab and that he tried to kill them just for being Israelis and then added on their social media accounts, “Death to Arabs.” 

There's a lot to say about this incident, especially the reaction to it or, more accurately, the very subdued lack of reaction.

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The interview: James Jackson

The issue on which our show has mostly focused over the last year or so has been the relentless assault on free speech after October 7. It resulted in all sorts of executive orders in the U.S., purporting to ban criticism of Israel or activism against it, the shutting of pro-Palestinian groups on campuses and even the shutting of TikTok as one very prominent senator admitted over the weekend: the true impetus for shutting down TikTok in the United States was that it was perceived to permit too many criticisms of Israel. 

Meanwhile, throughout Europe, the targeting of Israel critics and pro-Palestinian activists, particularly people engaged in activism against the Israeli war in Gaza, has been even more severe. While it's taken place throughout Europe, undoubtedly the country where it has been most extreme is Germany, which has furnished immense amounts of arms to Israel that it used to bomb and destroy Gaza and therefore has a very intent motive to prevent anyone from claiming that those are war crimes or genocide because it would make Germany complicit – a strain Vice-President JD Vance did not mention when criticizing Europe for the attacks on free speech at the Munich Security Conference, last week. 

James Jackson is an independent journalist and broadcaster from the United Kingdom who is based in Berlin. He hosts Mad in Germany, a current affairs podcast. He has previously covered news, business and culture in Germany and Central and Eastern Europe for publications like the BBC, Sunday Times, and Time Magazine. He has really become one of my top two or three go-to sources for understanding events in Germany, particularly these assaults on free speech. We are delighted to welcome him to his debut appearance on System Update. 

 

G. Greenwald: James, it's great to see you. Thanks so much for taking the time to talk to us. I know it's late there. 

James Jackson: Hi Glenn. Thanks so much for having me on here. You know, long-time reader and follower of yours. So, really great that you've picked up the free speech cause in Germany particularly because it's not something that has got very much attention until, of course, the vice president of the United States and “60 Minutes” as well brought it to the world's attention. But it's been something I've been trying to get the message out on for a while. So, I'm happy that it's gone global, but as you said, the most egregious attack on free speech JD Vance did not mention and that is the assault in Israel. I think we understand why, you know, politics plays a very important role in this. 

G. Greenwald: Right, sometimes politicians do constructive or positive acts or take constructive and positive steps even if it's always not for the best motives. And who knows, you know, JD Vance is politically constrained. I've never heard him defend or demand censorship of pro-Palestinian activism but in any event, he certainly did end up generating a lot more attention to this issue. 

I want to just step back from current events taking place in Germany which we'll get to in a minute including what happened today at this film festival. I think one of the very first articles I ever wrote when I became a journalist or a blogger back in 2005, 2006, was precisely about the fact that there is a vastly different tradition in Western Europe when it comes to perceptions of free speech than there is in the United States. One of the few unifying views in the United States was, at least until recently, the idea that even the most horrendous political views are permitted to be expressed. The state can't punish you for them. And I remember what prompted my article was a conviction in Austria of the British historian David Irving for having engaged in revisionism and denial of the Holocaust. He was criminally convicted and sentenced to a prison term. I essentially wrote that these things are unimaginable in the United States but they're common in Europe and in Germany in particular. After World War II, you could even say, for understandable reasons, there emerged these restrictions on speech particularly when it came to denying the reality of the Holocaust, its magnitude, trying to revise what happened, as well as praise for Adolf Hitler and the Nazi party and the Nazi ideology. And so, you started off with this kind of exception to free speech justified by these extreme events of World War II and they've obviously, as we're seeing now, have expanded aggressively as censorship usually does. That's its trajectory. It starts off justified by some extreme event that people can get on board with and then before you know it, it's a power that is being used all over the place. 

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